Will Shetterly's Rule: "There are no correct alternate histories; there are only plausible alternate histories."

"Plausibility, as the necessary brake and control element, has been our most essential guide." -Harold C. Deutsch, introduction to What If? Strategic Alternatives of WWII

"It is easy to agrue persuasively the truism that the lessons of history are best derived from what actually happened, rather than from what nearly happened. It should be added, however, that what happened becomes more fully comprehensible in the light of the contending forces that existed at moments of decision. Understanding of the total historical setting is bound to contribute to a clearer view of the actual course of affairs." -Harold C. Deutsch, introduction to What If? Strategic Alternatives of WWII

Why is alternate history science fiction?

• Kim Stanley Robinson: "Science fiction is the history that we cannot know."
• William Sanders: Science fiction fans like history.
• Harry Turtledove: "Science fiction writers write it. And it uses a very science fictional technique: change one thing and extrapolate from that."

It is important to distinguish among alternate histories, parallel worlds, alternate universes, and secret histories. Alternate history fiction requires that the world described be historically the same as ours up to some point prior to when the author wrote the story, after which things begin to get different. (*)

Other names for alternate history:

• Alternative history: Brian Stableford noted, "Some years ago I used the term 'alternate worlds' in front of Brian Aldiss, who took me to task for it. 'They should be called alternative worlds', he said. 'Calling them alternate worlds makes it sound as if they somehow take turns.'"
• Uchronia: The term "uchronie", or "uchronia", was apparently first used by Charles Renouvier in an anonymous article in Revue Philosophique et Religieuse in 1857. "Uchronie" is still the preferred term in French for alternate history literature.
• Allohistory: "Allohistory" literally means "other history" and is the term preferred by Gordon B. Chamberlain.
• Counterfactuals: "Counterfactuals" appears to be the preferred term of professional historians and economists.

Common abbreviations:

ACW = American Civil War

AH = alternate history

ATL = alternate timeline

OTL = our timeline

POD, PoD = point of divergence

WI = what-if

Most common what-ifs in literature:

At the "Histories: The Way We Weren't" panel at Boskone 28. Mark Keller said that the most common change points were (in English-language science fiction, anyway) was "What if Germany (Japan) had won World War II?" (over a hundred that he found). The next most popular was "What if the South had won the Civil War?" (about eighty). Third was "What if the Spanish Armada had not been defeated?" The most popular in French was "What if Napoleon had not been defeated?" which Keller said usually resulted in a better world than we have, while most American alternate histories show things as being worse. When someone in the audience asked why, Mark Olson replied, "We look at this as the best of all possible worlds, but the French know it isn't, because most people speak English."

Looking at the Uchronia list, the most common PoDs (by story) seem to be:

World War II	1939-1945	131 (plus 19 in 1946)
Civil War	1860-1861	75
World War I/Russian Revolution	1914-1918	24
Death of Richard Coeur de Lion	1199	18
Kennedy Assassination	1963	14
Cuban Missile Crisis	1962	13
FDR	1932-1933	13
Waterloo	1815	12
Spanish Armada	1588	12
Jacobite Wars	1746	11
Fall of Moorish Spain/Columbus Discovers America	1492	11

Most common by author:

World War II	1939-1945	119 (plus 7 in 1946)
Civil War:	1860-1861	57
World War I/Russian Revolution	1914-1918	25
Kennedy Assassination	1963	13
Cuban Missile Crisis	1962	11
FDR	1932-1933	13
Waterloo	1815	12
Fall of Moorish Spain/Columbus Discovers America	1492	10
Vietnam War	1968	9
Watergate	1968	6
Spanish Armada	1588	6
American Revolution	1776	6
…
Jacobite Wars	1746	1
Death of Richard Coeur de Lion	1199	1

Bibliography and Recommended Reading

Alternate history book list: http://www.uchronia.net

Recommended books about alternate history (*):

• The best is Charles G. Waugh and Martin H. Greenberg's Alternative Histories: Eleven Stories of the World As It Might Have Been (Garland 1986).
• Ed McKnight's doctoral thesis (University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill 1994) Alternative History: the Development of a Literary Genre is available from UMI Dissertation Services as order number 9508228.
• Recently there was Karen Hellekson's Towards a Taxonomy of the Alternate History Genre.
• If you can read German, Jorg Helbig's dissertation (Freie Universitaet Berlin 1987) has been published as a book (Der Parahistorische Roman. Ein Literarhistorischer Und Gattungstypologischer Beitrag Zur Allotopieforschung) and it focuses on two general types of alternate history: intellectual study vs. fictional allegory.
• There is also J. C. Squire's If It Had Happened Otherwise: Lapses into Imaginary History (Longmans, Green 1931; exp Sidgwick & Jackson 1972; St. Martin's 1974); rev as If: Or, History Rewritten (Viking 1931; Kennikat 1964).

Recommended alternate histories (OP=out of print, UK=UK edition only in print):

Classics:

• Amis, Kingsley, The Alteration (1976)
• de Camp, L. Sprague, Lest Darkness Fall (1949)
• Deighton, Len, SS-GB: Nazi-Occupied Britain: 1941 (1972, OP)
• Dick, Philip K., The Man in the High Castle (1962)
• Fry, Stephen, Making History (1996)
• Garrett, Randall, Murder and Magic, Too Many Magicians, and Lord Darcy Investigates (1965 and forward, OP)
• Harris, Robert, Fatherland (1992)
• Kantor, Mackinlay, If The South Had Won the Civil War (1961, OP--to be reprinted Nov 2001)
• Moore, Ward, Bring the Jubilee (1953, OP--but in Harry Turtledove's The Best Alternate History Stories of the 20th Century, Oct 2001)
• Piper, H. Beam, Lord Kalvan of Otherwhen (1964, OP)
• Roberts, Keith, Pavane (1968)
• Sobel, Robert, For Want of a Nail…; If Burgoyne Had Won at Saratoga (1973)
• Turtledove, Harry, The Guns of the South: A Novel of the Civil War (1992)

Recent (in addition to the Sidewise Award winners listed below):

• Card, Orson Scott, "Tales of Alvin Maker" (1987-continuing)
• Dreyfuss, Richard and Harry Turtledove, The Two Georges (1996)
• Evans, Christopher, Aztec Century (1993, OP)
• Garfinkle, Richard, Celestial Matters: A Novel of Alternate Science (1996)
• Harrison, Harry, Stars and Stripes Forever (1998)
• Harrison, Harry, & John Holm, The Hammer and the Cross Trilogy (1993-1996)
• Keyes, J. Gregory, "Age of Unreason" (1998-2001)
• Macksey, Kenneth, Invasion: The German Invasion of England, July 1940 (1980)
• Newman, Kim, Anno Dracula (1992), The Bloody Red Baron (1995), and others
• Pullman, Philip, "His Dark Materials" (1996-2000)
• Tsouras, Peter G., Disaster at D-Day: The Germans Defeat the Allies, June 1944 (1994)
• Tsouras, Peter G., Gettysburg: An Alternate History (1997)
• Turtledove, Harry, Worldwar Tetralogy (1994-1996)
• Wilson, Robert Charles, Darwinia (1998)
• Wilson, Robert Charles, Mysterium (1995, OP)

Anthologies:

• Benford, Gregory, & Martin H. Greenberg (eds), Hitler Victorious: Eleven Stories of the German Victory in World War II (1986, OP)
• Benford, Gregory, & Martin H. Greenberg (eds), What Might Have Been Tetralogy (1989-1992, OP)
• Dozois, Gardner, & Stanley Schmidt (eds), Roads Not Taken (1998)
• Greenberg, Martin H. (ed), The Way It Wasn't: Great Stories of Alternate History (1996)
• Macksey, Kenneth (ed), The Hitler Options: Alternate Decisions of World War II (1995)
• North, Jonathan (ed), The Napoleon Options: Alternate Decisions of the Napoleonic Wars (2000)
• Resnick, Mike (ed), Alternate Kennedys (1992, OP)
• Resnick, Mike (ed), Alternate Presidents (1992, OP)
• Tsouras, Peter G. (ed), Rising Sun Victorious: The Alternate History of How the Japanese Won the Pacific War (2001)
• Turtledove, Harry (ed), Best Alternate History Stories of the 20th Century (2001)

Sidewise Awards (http://www.uchronia.net/sidewise) (year listed is the year the works appeared):

• 1995 Winners:
  • Long Form: Paul J. McAuley, Pasquale's Angel (**winner**)
  • Short Form: Stephen Baxter, "Brigantia's Angels" (**winner**)
• 1996 Winners:
  • Long Form: Stephen Baxter, Voyage (**winner**)
  • Short Form: Walter Jon Williams, "Foreign Devils" (**winner**)
• 1997 Nominees and Winners:
  • Long Form:
    • Delacorte, Peter: Time on My Hands
    • Swanwick, Michael: Jack Faust
    • Turtledove, Harry: How Few Remain (**winner**)
  • Short Form:
    • Allred, Lee: "For the Strength of the Hills"
    • Green, Roland J.: "The King of Poland's Foot Cavalry"
    • Newman, Kim, & Eugene Byrne: "Teddy Bear's Picnic"
    • Sanders, William: "The Undiscovered" (**winner**)
• 1998 Nominees and Winners:
  • Long Form:
    • Bear, Greg: Dinosaur Summer
    • Fry, Stephen: Making History (**winner**)
    • Sargent, Pamela: Climb the Wind
  • Short Form:
    • Baxter, Stephen, & Arthur C. Clarke: "The Wire Continuum"
    • MacLeod, Ian R.: "The Summer Isles" (**winner**)
    • Silverberg, Robert.: "Waiting for the End"
    • Waldrop, Howard.: "'US'"
• 1999 Nominees and Winners:
  • Long Form:
    • DuBois, Brendan: Resurrection Day (**winner**)
  • Short Form:
    • Bergeron, Alain: "The Eighth Register" (**winner**)
    • Jensen, Jan Lars: "Secret History of the Orinthopter"
    • Silverberg, Robert: "Getting to Know the Dragon"
    • Silverberg, Robert: "A Hero of the Empire"
• 2000 Nominees and Winners:
  • Long Form:
    • Blom, Suzanne Alles: Aztec
    • Gentle, Mary: Ash: A Secret History (**winner**)
    • Stirling, S. M.: "The Nantucket Trilogy"
  • Short Form:
    • Byrne, Eugene: "HMS Habbakuk"
    • Chiang, Ted: "Seventy-Two Letters" (**winner**)
    • McAuley, Paul M.: "A Very British History"
    • Newman, Kim: "The Other Side of Midnight: Anno Dracula 1981"
    • Pereira, Carla Cristina: "Xochiquetzal"
• 2001 Nominees and Winners:
  • Long Form:
    • J. Gregory Keyes. The Age of Unreason (Newton's Cannon, A Calculus of Angels, Empire of Unreason, The Shadows of God)
    • Allen Steele. Chronospace
    • J. N. Stroyar. The Children's War (**winner**)
  • Short Form:
    • Stephen Baxter and Simon Bradshaw. "First to the Moon"
    • Ken MacLeod. "The Human Front" (**winner**)
• 2002 Nominees:
  • Long Form:
    • Gary Blackwood. The Year of the Hangman
    • Martin J. Gidron. The Severed Wing (**winner**)
    • Christopher Priest. The Separation
    • S.M. Stirling. The Peshawar Lancers
    • Harry Turtledove. Ruled Britannia (**winner**)
  • Short Form:
    • Charles Coleman Finlay. "We Come Not to Praise Washington"
    • John Kessel. "The Invisible Empire"
    • William Sanders. "Empire" (**winner**)
    • Robert Silverberg. "With Caesar in the Underworld"
    • Walter Jon Williams. "The Last Ride of German Freddie"

Copyright 2001 Evelyn C. Leeper
evelyn.leeper@excite.com
http://www.geocities.com/evelynleeper
August 13, 2001